Chaos Orb Price: How To Determine Value

First of all, how about the layout change?  The site looks great doesn’t it?  Once again, I just wanted to say thank you to the team here at Warcraft Econ for giving me the opportunity to bring content to a larger audience.  I very much appreciate the vote of confidence.  With that said, I want to dive right into today’s post.  During a recent discussion on the lost episode of the Auction House Junkies Podcast I brought up the topic of placing a value on Chaos Orbs.  There was a little debate about the topic, but eventually we came to an overall consensus on what the current value is, and how that value could be obtained.

The Importance of Chaos Orbs

It’s no secret that the demand for Chaos Orbs has exploded over the past week.  This due in large part for the brand new BoE Patterns that have finally arrived on all servers.  Now, more than ever, Chaos Orbs are in large demand by all players.  However, there is a catch to cashing in on the riches.  Blizzard has done a great job of keeping Chaos Orbs BoP.  Unlike the Frozen Orb of Wrath of the Lich King, the Orbs remaining BoP force crafters into running the Heroic five mans.  This, in essence, helps to filter in more people to the dungeons and filling the purpose of helping to keep queue times short.  At least, I believe, that is the theory behind it.  How well it works in practice is debatable.  Moreover, the crafter of these new items also has to have bested the first portion of the Molten Front Dailies in order to able to obtain particular patterns.  So this narrows down the amount of people who will have both the Chaos Orbs you need, along with the pattern available to them.

Let’s be honest.  Getting the Chaos Orbs is a fairly easy task.  However, obtaining the patterns is a pretty intensive grind that does take several days of dedication.  Combining these two factors leads me to believe there is a fair amount of room for these players to charge a premium for their orbs.  There are two ways of determining value.  The first way is mathematical.  Let’s go ahead and break that down.

The Breakdown

On average, high material cost Blacksmithing Weapons are selling for roughly 20,000 gold on my server.  Let’s use the example of Masterwork Elementium Deathblade

The Mats Required are:
8x Truegold – 700 gold ea = 5,600 gold
4x Hardened Elementium Bars – 75 gold ea = 300 gold
2x Ocean Sapphire – 5 Gold ea = 10 Gold
5x Chaos Orb – Unknown
Grand Total = 5,910 Gold sans Chaos Orbs

So if we take 20,000 and subtract the material cost of 5,910.  That leaves the value of the Orbs at 14,090. Diveded by 5 = 2,818 Per Orb

Based on those calculations, the mathematical value of a Chaos Orb should be 2,818 Gold Per Orb.  That’s not a bad determination based on the current market structure and the amount of liquid gold in the market.  However, this is, at very best, a best case scenario for the Chaos Orb.  As more people obtain these patterns, the prices for these Orbs are going to fall.  That’s why I determined a secondary value.

Chaos Orb Price: 1,000 Gold

In my opinion, based on studying the economy and analyizing the long term implications, I can say with some confidence that the overall value of a Chaos Orb for an extended period of time should be roughly 1,000 Gold.  I came to this determination not by a mathematical equation, but simply by being realistic.  The majority of crafters who are selling these items are not going to turn to the Auction House to do so.  While there are those entrepreneurs that are taking advantage now, the majority of players who obtain these patterns will be looking for you to provide the materials to craft them.  A fair amount to pay for the use of a Chaos Orb and the difficult to obtain pattern I feel is 1,000 Gold per Orb.  This leaves everyone involved with a profitable margin.  The crafter is able to clear 5,000 gold without having to tie up resources or time trying to move the item on the Auction House.  The player having the item crafted is presented with a price that is roughly 9,090 Gold under the Auction House equivalent.

So if you’ve been asking yourself what you should charge for a Chaos Orb, or what you should be willing to pay, I think 1,000 gold per Orb is a rational number.  If you’re a buyer, shoot for this number or lower.  If you’re a seller, shoot for this number or higher.  Sellers do currently have the upper hand in this market as supply is still extremely limited.  Take advantage of this while you can, as I can most certainly guarantee it will not last long.   Buyers, turn on your negotiation skills.  Remind sellers of the time and resources they’ll have to tie up to move the item on the Auction House.  For none Goblins, this can be a big selling point.

Good luck and have fun with this new market.  Feel free to report back in the comments with your experiences with both Chaos Orbs and the new markets.